Effort estimation is Estimation Software size - Planning and Managing the Project

Discussion

• Nirja Shah   -Posted on 13 Oct 15
  - Software development effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic amount of effort (expressed in terms of person-hours or money) required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and noisy input.
  
  - Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets, investment analysis, pricing processes and bidding rounds.
  
  - Published surveys on estimation practice suggest that expert estimation is the dominant strategy when estimating software development effort.
  
  - Typically, effort estimates are over-optimistic and there is a strong over-confidence in their accuracy.
  
  - The mean effort overrun seems to be about 30% and not decreasing over time.
  
  - However, the measurement of estimation error is not unproblematic.
  
  - The strong over-confidence in the accuracy of the effort estimates is illustrated by the finding that, on average, if a software professional is 90% confident or “almost sure” to include the actual effort in a minimum-maximum interval, the observed frequency of including the actual effort is only 60-70%.
  
  - Currently the term “effort estimate” is used to denote as different concepts as most likely use of effort (modal value), the effort that corresponds to a probability of 50% of not exceeding (median), the planned effort, the budgeted effort or the effort used to propose a bid or price to the client.
  
  - This is believed to be unfortunate, because communication problems may occur and because the concepts serve different goals.

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