IMD uses ensemble model for forecast; developing dynamical model
Q. Which model is used by IMD to predict monsoon forecast?- Published on 02 Aug 16a. Dynamical
b. Ensemble
c. Dynamical and Ensemble
d. None of the above
ANSWER: Ensemble
- The IMD relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.
- This traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures — in 2002 and 2004 for instance — leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.
- A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.
- Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.
- The dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade is ready for operational purposes next year.
