Advantages & Disadvantages of Pre-poll predictions

Advantages & Disadvantages of Pre-poll predictions

Far ahead of the elections, there are various entities in India that start predicting the results of the polls. There are astrologers and tarot card readers whose predictions are largely believed in and trusted upon by a great number of people who swear by them. No wonders they have been having a prosperous career in it to the extent that their opinion changes or manipulates the course of elections.

There are surveys conducted by news agencies and private entities that claim to show true public opinion on the upcoming elections. There have always been controversies surrounding pre-poll predictions on grounds that they manipulate voters and lead them to believe that others will be voting for a particular party. The other group believes that they are necessary in a democracy to show people what everyone else thinks.

Advantages

1. Sensing the mood

In a country of billions, it is extremely difficult to predict the mood of an election if pre-poll predictions are non-existent. They help people in deciphering that their votes go to someone who might actually need it or use it rather than wasting it over a candidate that has no chance standing against the dominant parties. It prevents dividing of votes to a great extent.

2. Bringing the underdog to the front

New party who have never been a player in an area is the underdog whose work and efforts will go unnoticed if the pre-polls did not show chances of their getting some votes and having chances of securing seats. AAP would have never been what it is today without the conformity of the pre-poll predictions that showed that an underdog could go on to rule Delhi.

3. Fierce competition

The losing party gets a reality check, and a chance to fight harder and prove the predictions wrong. No wonder promises get bigger as pre-polls are out.

Disadvantages

1. Inaccurate

They have been inaccurate more number of times that being right on rare situations. They either show one party to be dominating so much that people are made to believe that they ought to bring someone else into power to prove the predictions wrong or make them over-confident that their party will win no matter what. Both the situations are a disadvantage in a democracy.

2. Confined to the Twitter opinion

Not everyone has access to social media where they could vent against one party and show open support to the other. The defect with this kind of predicting platforms is that they are confined to the opinions of those with a Smartphone and an internet connection which sadly does not consist of the majority of the Indian voting population.

3. Affecting other constituencies

The other constituencies that are up for elections are immediately intimidated by the results of the opinion-polls of a constituency. They are made to believe that since is what will happen in one state, they could be expecting the same too which manipulates their opinion on the poll and who they are going to vote for. This is how most Indians form their opinion on political parties.

4. Biased media

Media could be mean and manipulative in the worst possible way. They are usually claimed to be inclined or sold to the ideals of one party and hence use all their tools to create hindrances for the others. Media is a dangerous tool in this context. Faked reports can do more harm than expected.

Pre-poll predictions have it disadvantages dominating over the few advantages but it is difficult to ban them in a democracy where people have the rights to know what everyone else thinks of the political scenario of the nation.