Average Increase in Temperatures = Reduction in Wheat Production

Average Increase in Temperatures = Reduction in Wheat Production

Leading scientists from the University of Southampton have found a link between rising average temperatures in India and a fall in wheat production. The geographers have studied how wheat production has been adversely impacted by changes in global temperature . Researchers Dr. John Duncan and his research team Dr. Jadu Dash and Professor Pete Atkinson have demonstrated that recent warmer temperatures in the country's massive wheat belt have created a negative impact on the crop yield. They have found that the rise in temperatures during the night is having a negative effect on wheat production in India.

According to Dr. Dash who has been quoted by the media the "findings highlight the vulnerability of India's wheat production system to temperature rise, which is predicted to continue in the coming decades as a consequence of climate change. We are sounding an early warning to the problem, which could have serious implications in the future and so needs further investigation."

Researchers used satellite images obtained at weekly intervals from the years 2002 to 2007 of the wheat growing seasons to gain a measure of the "vegetation greenness" of the wheat crop. This is an indicator of the total crop yield during this season. Satellite imagery obtained of the north west Indo-Gangetic plains taken at the resolution of 500m squared was compared with climate and temperature data for the reason. This particular resolution was taken because it is high enough to capture variations in local agricultural systems and practices. This particular resolution was examined to enable scientists to ascertain the effect on the growth and development of the crop.

The study was published in the journal Global Change Biology. Briefly , the researchers found that warmer temperature events have led to reductions in the wheat crop yield. More specifically , the researchers found that higher temperatures at the time of the reproductive and grain-filling or ripening periods exerted considerable negative impact on productivity. A warmer minimum daily temperature or nighttime temperature also had massive impact on the yield.

In certain areas of the Indian wheat belt, farmers have been bringing forward their growing season so that they can align more sensitive parts of the crop growth cycle with a period that is cooler. But the researchers have demonstrated that this too will not be a good way out to combat this problem as the average temperatures are expected to rise to much higher levels in the future. Dr Dash has been quoted in media reports as saying "Our study shows that, over the longer period, farmers are going to have to think seriously about changing their wheat to more heat tolerant varieties in order to prevent temperature-induced yield losses.

Currently in India, 213 million people are food insecure and over 100 million are reliant on the national food welfare system, which uses huge quantities of wheat. This underlines how crucial it is to consider what types of wheat need to be grown in the coming decades to secure production. We hope that soon, we will be able to examine agricultural practices in even greater detail – with the launch of the European Space Agency's Sentinel satellites which will provide regular data at even higher spatial resolution."