Changes in Weather Pattern during Monsoon Linked to Droughts and Floods in Central India
Changes in Weather Pattern during Monsoon Linked to Droughts and Floods in Central India
Researchers from a leading US university have warned about the potent effect of patterns of extreme dry and wet events during monsoon in central India. While scientists have always cautioned the human race against the ill-effects of global warming, lobbyists have been trying to advocate that climate change is a myth. Unfortunately, activism for environmental causes is being seen as disruptive by many industries and companies. But what happens when the effects of climate change become so apparent that researchers across the world are sounding warnings that extremes in dry and wet spells may destroy all the crops? Scientists from Stanford University have warned that the changes in the patterns of wet and dry events in India’s monsoon are increasing the possibility of droughts and floods in India.
Intensity of extremely wet spells followed by extremely dry spells has been found to increase in recent times with respect to the South Asian Monsoon. This has an alarming consequence for the Indian subcontinent. Noah Differnbaugh, the senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment has asserted that while these rainfall extremes occur only a few times in the year, the impact they can have is really large.
The South Asian summer monsoon is distinctive to the Indian subcontinent. It is an annual wind driven weather pattern. More importantly, the South Asian monsoon is the main source of India’s annual precipitation. This can impact the availability of water for irrigation in India’s agricultural sector. Two-thirds of the India farmlands rely on rainfall in India. This is a deplorable state of affairs considering agriculture is a major source of livelihood in rural areas and also important for the impetus of agro-based and fertilizer industries. Authorities and administration should have aimed for bettering the state of irrigation in the country instead of leaving the matter to the Rain Gods.
Alternative cropping as well as opting for dry crops means a shift in the cropping patterns of the country. But the extremity of dry and wet spells can have significant repercussions when it comes to vulnerability to natural disasters such as flooding as well. Just recently, Afghanistan experienced major flooding. India could be next, if the findings of the researchers at Stanford are taken into account.
Rainfall extremes during the months of the monsoon season are just as important as the amount of precipitation, according to Deepti Singh who is the lead author of the Stanford study. Too many days without rain can lead to crop failure or reduced yields. Natural disasters such as those in 2005 may also be lurking in corners too following this dismal climate change induced variation in precipitation patterns. According to the researchers conducting the Stanford study, extreme weather spells are defined as 3 or more consecutive days of either extremes-high or low when it comes to rainfall. The team used rainfall data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department along with other sources over a period of 60 years.
Rigorous statistical methods were used for comparing peak monsoon rainfall patterns from two time periods: 1951 to 1980 and 1981 to 2011. The peak of the monsoon season occurs during the months of July and August. The Stanford scientists looked at rainfall for these two months. They have concluded that there is a risk of drought and flood in central India as a result of extremes during the monsoon season.
While the researchers are cautious in pointing the finger towards global warming as India is a complex region, it is certainly clear that the agricultural sector needs to be ready for any eventuality. It is equally essential that disaster management teams become aware of the risks and possibilities of flooding in central India. If prevention is not possible, even cure is an acceptable solution.
Stanford’s scientists who have conducted this study have found that changes in the atmosphere such as winds and moisture are responsible for changes in the dry and wet spell patterns during India’s monsoon. While many may not be convinced of the impact of climate change, the time has come for governments to take a more decisive stand. After all, it is better to err on the side of caution.
