El Nino and its impact on the Indian monsoon: Possible Scenarios
El Nino and its impact on the Indian monsoon: Possible Scenarios
A possible disruption in the Indian monsoon is becoming a major possibility in recent times. This is in light with the predictions of the Australian Metrological Bureau which has indicated that the El Nino phenomenon could be back to haunt us this year. This can impact the economic recovery of India in a negative manner. The Australian Metrological Bureau said that there was more than a 70% chance of the development of this phenomenon during this year. El Nino is a Spanish term meaning “the boy”. This is a band of warm ocean temperatures that develop around Christmas in the Pacific coast along South America. A drastic change in climate pattern oscillations caused due to El Nino impact everything from the droughts and floods to crop yields.
The tropical Pacific Ocean is subject to El Nino and La Nina and this can cause significant changes in the world climate as well. El Nino refers to the warming of the oceans and the rise in air surface pressure in the Western Pacific ocean while there is a fall in the air surface pressure when the cold temperature oscillations due to La Nina result. The primary signs of El Nino are the rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean and other regions such as Indonesia and Australia. The fall in air pressure over region such as Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is also caused to the El Nino effect. Warm water spreads from the western to the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean due to this weather phenomenon.
The disruption in the Indian monsoon season is possible due to the emergence of the El Nino phenomenon. El Nino causes the Pacific Ocean to heat up and cause deficient rainfall in India. The agricultural industry of our nation is heavily reliant on the Indian monsoon. With global changes in world climate and extremes in temperature, freak weather conditions are not unusual now. El Nino has the impact to harm the productivity of the Indian agricultural sector. The monsoon season in India which exists from June to September influences the farming practices in India effectively. Despite the fact that India has one of the oldest agricultural systems in the world, there are not enough sources for irrigation in our country. It is disheartening that crop failure occurs due to water shortage. To rely on phenomenon such as the monsoon instead of having stable irrigation systems in place exposes us to the hazards of weather phenomenon such as El Nino.
El Nino was also seen as a major risk by RBI governor Raghuram Rajan during the monetary policy review. The forecast of a consumer price index inflation of 8% is based on factors such as a poor monsoon stemming from the El Nino effect. Following the peak in November last year, retail inflation emerging from the CPI has eased in later months. It should be noted that agricultural products and commodities have a weightage of 50% as compared to other productions as far as retail inflation is concerned. An increase in prices could cause inflation to cross 8%. This can have a really bad impact on the Indian economy.
Our Indian Metrological Department has also has also made a similar prediction when it comes to the El Nino phenomenon. In the experimental forecast given by IMD, it is estimated that rainfall could be lesser in many parts of South Asia except North India. The El Nino-southern oscillation (Enso) is neutral now. But a worrying sign is that the surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have increased in recent days. IMD has also indicated that the El Nino phenomenon is all set to stage a comeback going by the world climate models as the central to eastern Pacific Ocean waters have become hotter in recent weeks. The current warming pattern is indicative of a possible El Nino effect later this year.
The apprehensions regarding a poor monsoon could have been lessened if central and state governments had the foresight to propose and implement good irrigation projects and initiatives in the past years. It is a sad fact that the Indian farmer is facing a Hobson’s choice when it comes to his livelihood. Deprived of any other means to sustain himself, he is at the mercy of the monsoon and El Nino instead of being given adequate irrigation facilities and amenities. Maybe the El Nino effect could motivate our leaders to become more reliant on science rather than waiting for divine intervention when it comes to providing irrigation facilities for our farmers and agriculturalists.
