From 7 to 11: World Population Set to Increase By 4 Billion Till 2100
From 7 to 11: World Population Set to Increase By 4 Billion Till 2100
The population of the world may be shooting beyond previously estimated levels, according to a UN led report and analysis. The analytic report states that earth's population is set to reach 11 billion by the end of the century. This means 4 million more people by 2100. The report was published in noted US Journal Science.
There will now be 2 billion more people than estimated earlier on earth by 2100. The researchers are indicating this is largely due to massively high birth rates in Africa. "The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around seven billion, would go up to nine billion and level off or probably decline," co-author Adrian Raftery, who is currently professor of statistics and of sociology at the University of Washington was quoted as saying.
The study also suggests that while Africa will grow massively in terms of its population, other populations will either peak out or lower drastically. As far as the latter is concerned, countries like Japan are already experiencing a shrinking population. "We found there's a 70 per cent probability the world population will not stabilise this century," Raferty has been quoted as having added.
The study uses a combination of the most recent UN population data released in the month of July this year and Bayesian statistics to provide all the information for the purpose of generating better predictions and more effective analysis. Prior to this, earlier estimates had only been based on expert ideas and opinions regarding life expectancy rates and fertility rates to change over time.
UN demographer Patrick Gerland has also commented on this, saying to the media that “Earlier projections were strictly based on scenarios, so there was no uncertainty.” Gerland then goes on to say how the work now is more statistically driven to enable the quantification of prediction and ensure that a confidence interval would be formulated which would help in planning.
The population of Africa is expected to rise from 1 billion at present to 4 billion by the end of the century and there is an 80% chance of there being between 3.5 to 5.1 billion people in this continent at the turn of the century. The study also predicts that the population of Asia currently 4.4 will peak to around 5 billion in 2050 and then begin to decline. Meanwhile, North as well as Latin America, Europe and the Caribbean are expected to remain below 1 billion.
Analysts estimate that this massive population rise could add fuel to the fire when it comes to issues such as poverty, inadequate health care and excessive climate change. Population remains a very critical issue. The level of development and employment generation clearly determines whether population growth can be a curse or a boon. To a large extent, Indian's population and demographic dividend remain untapped as of yet.
