Indian Monsoon Finally Revives
Indian Monsoon Finally Revives
The Indian monsoon has now covered the entire country as per the weather office. The Indian monsoon is now just 2 days behind the normal schedule. While forecasts have been made that rain will be below average this year, the revival of monsoon rain in northwest and central regions of the country is a welcome relief. This will speed up the sowing of main summer crops which are extremely important such as corn, rice, soybean and cotton.
As rain gathers pace in July, drought fears have now receded. Poor rains commencing from the start of the month of June raised concerns about a possible drought, the first of its kind in 5 years. Rains are critical to the farm sector in India. This sector accounts for 14% of India's economy amounting to $2 trillion.
Last year, monsoon rains had covered the country a month ahead of schedule which enabled grain output to reach record highs. India's troubled monsoon has finally shown signs of improvement and recovery. Met officials are now forecasting steady rains for the rest of this month.
In the parched regions of central and northwest India, this is especially important given worries regarding inflation, water scarcity and below-average kharif crop.
Good rains over the past 3 to 4 days have led to overall monsoon deficit of 43% on July 18. The deficit will likely shrink for the remainder of the month according to director of IMD B P Yadav.
Fears of drought has caused a lot of uncertainty regarding farm incomes and rural demand. Rural demand is critical to sustain the economy of the country. Scanty rains have cut the crucial prop for the economy to revive from the under 5% growth that has occurred for the past 2 years.
IMD has also forecasted that the rains will be widespread. According to Met officials, there is likely to be an increase in the intensity, frequency and distribution of rainfall over a span of 2 weeks.
Low pressure activity over the Bay of Bengal which is an important feature of the monsoon system is the reason why the monsoon has revived. According to the IMD, low pressure systems have started forming. There is currently one in central part of India over the northern parts of Chattisgarh.
The low pressure systems will lead to steady rain activity within the next fortnight leading to lack of a long break in the monsoon in this period, according to IMD officials
This is the first forecast of a revived monsoon during this reason. But experts say the shadow of El Nino still hangs over the entire proceedings. International forecasts have shown a slight slowdown of El Nino but the chances of a weather anomaly continue to persist. Hopefully it will not come to pass.
